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budget critique

Critics note "exaggerated optimism" of government's economic forecast

Published måndag 16 april 2012 kl 19.37
NIER's Mats Dillén and LO chief economist Ola Petterson are critical. Photo: Anders Wiklund/Janerik Henriksson/Scanpix

The 2013 economic growth upswing after a cool 2012 predicted in this morning's government budget could be overly optimistic, according to economists at the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) and at LO, the umbrella organisation to several of Sweden's largest trade unions.

They tell Swedish Radio that the upswing, with economic growth reaching as high as 3.3 percent next year after a decidedly slower 0.4 percent climb this year, does not correspond with their own analyses.

Economist Matts Dillén, head of NIER, says his institute sees the same growth rate for 2012. "After that, the government is more optimistic in 2013 and also in the longer perspective," he says.

Ola Petterson, chief economist at LO, says the government's "optimism is exaggerated."

"It looks like they've concluded that unemployment will be at 5 percent by 2016," he says, "and then they have constructed a prognosis around that."

"I don't think this is a realistic starting point for presenting a budget," he says.

Borg presents cautious spring budget

The government has published a cautious spring budget, predicting economic growth of only 0.4 percent this year - down from an earlier forecast of 1.3 percent. However, Finance Minister Anders Borg sees light ahead.

Our journalism is based on credibility and impartiality. Swedish Radio is independent and not affiliated to any political, religious, financial, public or private interests.
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