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New poll shows fall for Christian Democrats and lead for red-greens

Published tisdag 31 maj 2016 kl 09.18
Political commentator: A relief for the Social Democrats
(2:38 min)
Ebba Busch Thor SCB
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The new party leader, Ebba Busch Thor has not boosted the struggling Christian Democrat Party. Photo: Erik Nylander/TT. Graphic: SR. Credit: Erik Nylander/TT
The well-regarded, biannual poll of party preference conducted by Statistics Sweden. Photo: Statistics Sweden
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The well-regarded, biannual poll of party preference conducted by Statistics Sweden. Photo: Statistics Sweden

A well-respected poll suggests that the Green Party and the Sweden Democrats have lost support while the Social Democrats have gained. 

2011-2016

Infographics: Liv Widell, Ekot

Note that the graphs use the acronyms for the party names in Swedish. C = Centre Party; L = Liberals; M = Moderate Party; KD = Christian Democrats; S = Social Democrats; V = Left Party; MP = Green Party; SD = Sweden Democrats

Tuesday Statistics Sweden released the results from its biannual Party Preference Survey. The agency characterizes the survey findings as "estimates of election results if an election had been held today."

The poll suggests the Red-Green partners in the minority government - the Social Democrats and the Green Party - with their tacit supporter the Left Party would take a plurality with 41 percent of the vote while the opposition Alliance coalition would get 39.3 percent.

The Social Democrats who polled at 27.6 percent in November gained 2 percentage points in Tuesday's results.

And the Green Party, which has weathered more than a month of media scrutiny starting when their housing minister Mehmet Kaplan resigned, had fallen nearly 2 percentage points from the November poll. The Greens would have only 4.7 percent support, according to the survey, only slightly above the 4 percent needed to enter Parliament. It's their lowest result in this survey since 2006.

The Moderates, a member of the Alliance bloc and the second largest party, rose more than 1 percentage point from their November poll figure to 24.7 percent. The Liberals gained as well, half a point taking 5.4 percent. But both the Centre Party with 6.1 percent and the Christian Democrats with 3.1 percent appear to have lost support. The Christian Democrats had their worst polling number ever since the party was first included in Statistics Sweden's survey in 1991. The poll suggests the party would not enter Parliament if an election was held today.

The Sweden Democrats, Sweden's third largest party whose populist anti-immigration politics and far-right roots have made them a pariah with the other major parties, had scored nearly 20 percent in the November survey. That's now fallen to 17.3 percent.

Statistics Sweden explains its polling method on its website:

"A sample of about 9 000 persons are interviewed by telephone for each survey round. Statistically scientific methods and the size of the sample guarantee high quality in the reported estimations."

Our journalism is based on credibility and impartiality. Swedish Radio is independent and not affiliated to any political, religious, financial, public or private interests.
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