two parties out of parliament?

New Poll Gives Government Lead

Three days after Sweden’s most comprehensive poll indicated that the red-green opposition has a strong lead over the ruling center-right coalition as September’s elections approach, a new poll shows a 3 percentage point lead for the government.

The Sifo survey gives the four center-right parties of the government 48.4 percent, compared to 45.6 percent for the opposition. It also indicates the conservative Moderate Party has passed the Social Democrats as Sweden’s most popular party, although that figure is within the margin of error.

The poll reflects several others in recent weeks showing a red-green slide.

On Thursday Statistics Sweden released its twice yearly poll, giving the opposition a 6 point lead over the government. It was based on a sample three or four times those of other polls, but analysts point out it was largely conducted before the opposition presented their shadow budget, which is seen as having alienated many voters because of proposed tax increases.

On the other hand, the Sifo poll is not all good news for the government, as it also indicates that two of the coalition parties, the Center and Christian Democrats, could fail to reach the 4 percent threshold for representation in parliament.

It also shows the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrat party would gain representation for the first time.