Large differences in British and Swedish coronavirus calculations

9:09 min

The number of Swedes who will show up at hospital and test positive for covid-19 in future is substantially higher if one applies a simulation model used by experts at Imperial College London to the Swedish population, than the forecast used by Sweden's public health agency, says an expert at Lund University.

Professor Paul Franks, an expert in genetic and molecular epidemiology at Lund University, tells Radio Sweden:

There's a massive difference between the number of individuals who the Swedish public health agency think will show up at hospitals and test positive for covid-19 compared with the numbers if you apply the Imperial College model,"

Sweden has not yet applied the stricter social suppression measures imposed by the UK government which was influenced by the Imperial College model.

But can we trust any coronavirus model simulations when the data from China is inconclusive?

Radio Sweden speaks to Professor Paul Franks at Lund University, the public health agency and the head of Swedish Radio's science department to try to find out.