With just over 18 months to go before the next general election, the Social Democrats (33.1 percent) and the Greens (9.1 percent) have more combined support than the governing centre-right coalition.
“The Moderates are losing support to the Social Democrats,” opinion poll analyst Laurin Gulled, told Dagens Nyheter.
“Among those [socialist voters] that went over to the Moderates in 2010, 7 percent say they plan to vote Social Democrat. That’s a significant change compared to last month.”
Voters switching their alliances from the Social Democrats to the Moderate Party played an important role in Sweden’s 2006 and 2010 general elections.
There was some good news in the poll for the coalition government with increased support for the Christian Democrats putting them over the 4 percent threshold to enter parliament. However the Centre Party would not win a seat were an election held tomorrow.
The poll gives the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats the highest level of support yet at 10.2 percent, largely due to their ability to attract older female voters, not traditionally part of their support base.
One in five respondents to the poll were unsure how they would vote.
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 2,122 voters by telephone from 7 to 26 February 2013.