Svensk Väljaropinion is Swedens "poll of polls", which weighs together the polling results of five bigger polling institutes. Graph: Swedish Radio
poll of polls

Opposition ten points ahead of government

The three red and green opposition parties are ten percentage points ahead of the government alliance parties in an opinion poll from the polling company Novus, Swedish Radio News reports. In the poll, which is based on several other polls, weighed into one, the four government parties get 39,7 per cent of the voters sympathies, while the Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Left Party reach 49,7 per cent. The gap between the two blocs is the biggest since the election in 2010.

"The explanation is probably the cost of ruling," professor and political analyst Mikael Gilljam at Gothenburg University, tells Swedish Radio News.

The increase in the gap has happened gradually since January, when the opposition parties were only two per cent ahead of the centre-right government parties.

"Voters tend to punish current governments and that is something that happenings all over the western world. And the punishment is harsher now if you look at it historically, it is harder to govern now than it was perhaps 10 or 20 years ago, says Mikael Gilljam.

He adds that the gap is now so big that the odds are clearly favour of a change of government. And the fact is the centre-right government has been in power for 7 years. "There are not many governments around the world who manage to win three elections in a row," he notes. On the other hand, a lot can happen before election day next September.

For the individual parties, the conservative Moderate party, on 25,6 per cent, is the lowest for the party lowest in this poll, since the election 2010. A continued concern for the government is the low results for the smaller coalition partners. The Centre Party is just above the four percent threshold to get into parliament, with 4,2 per cent in the poll. And the Christian Democrats get only 3,9 per cent in the poll, and would thus not make it into parliament and could therefore not be part of a government coalition. But many times in the past, these small parties have received sympathy votes on election day, from people eager to boost the number of seats for the centre-right alliance as a whole.

The anti-immigrant party the Sweden Democrats, with 8,9 per cent of the sympathies, confirm its position as the fourth biggest party in Sweden, after the Social Democrats, the Moderates and the Greens.

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