At the time of the September general election, the difference between the blocks was 4.2 percentage units. Now, it is 1.6 percentage units.
The poll shows that, if an election were to be held today, the red-green parties (the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Left Party) would receive 47.7 percent of the vote. The four opposition parties that are part of the Alliance coalition (the Moderates, the Liberals, the Centre Party and the Christian Democrats) would receive 41.1 percent. Support for the Sweden Democrats has dropped from 12.9 to 12.1 percent, but that results would still give them a Kingmaker role.
Representatives of the Sweden Democrats have said that they are prepared to vote against the new government’s budget in December, a move that could prompt a new election. How well the Sweden Democrats would do in a new election depends on how they act in the budget vote, according to political scientist Andrej Kokkonen of the University of Gothenburg.
”You have the have the backing of the organisation and it looks like grass-root supporters want the party to vote against the budget. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen seeing as this is a party with top-down rule. Instead, this is a decision that will be taken by a smaller circle of people,” Kokkonen told newspapers Göteborgs-Posten and Svenska Dagbladet, which published the new poll on Sunday.
Support for the ruling Social Democrats has dropped since the general election. The party received 28.4 percent in Sunday's poll, a slight improvement on the October results. Support for the Green Party, which is in government with the Social Democrats, has increased since the election to 8.4 percent, though the party’s results in October were higher. The Left Party has backed to 5.9 percent, which is a slight improvement on the election results but worse than in the October poll.
The Moderate Party, the biggest of the opposition parties in the centre-right Alliance, received 25.6 percent in the new poll, while support for the Centre Party remains at 6.1 percent and the Liberal Party has grown to 5.5. percent. The Christian Democrats received 3.9 percent, which means they fall below the four-percent barrier required to enter Parliament.
Toivo Sjörén, chief analyst at the Sifo polling company, said the Moderates are in a precarious position, with former party leader Fredrik Reinfeldt as well as the former minister of finance Anders Borg out of the game. They both resigned from their positions after the election.